Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Both writes two articles that strive for neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has has something to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
